Friday, 16 March 2018

Re-Imagining an insurance company - do you really need a policy management system?



I have a fair amount of background in the insurance industry, I even am a fellow of the FLMI (brag brag) but I have always been puzzled by why insurance companies needed policy admin systems’... True, my knowledge of technology is more modern, so I probably can’t appreciate the marvels these systems did, but to me, the technology exists today to do things much simpler, cheaper, and much more flexibly.

Before I had the guts to write this blog (nobody wants to look totally stupid), I chatted with a few friends, a solutions architect who has experience in the insurance industry, a friend whose company sells banking systems, and a couple of actuaries with experience across the industry including in product development. But of course any errors/omissions are mine.

To me, insurance policy admins deal mainly with workflows. There is a specific flow for every activity in the insurance industry, let’s take a policy issuance for example. The flow might be something like:




There are 5 actors in this workflow, the customer, the producer, and 3 actors internal to the insurance company, the team that does the admin side of policies, the underwriting team, and management of the underwriting team for exception handling.

The producer and customer/prospect meet, data captured and application made. If the data is complete the application reaches the underwriting team, else it goes back for completion. If it is the case is insurable it proceeds, else it is rejected.

The underwriting team decides whether it is a standard case, or a non standard case within limits. In both these cases a notice of quotation is sent to the customer followed by a formal quote. If the case is non-standard but not within limits, it is escalated to underwriting management for approval or rejection in which case the notice of quote and quote follow, or the rejection letter.

Upon receipt of the quote, the customer can decide to accept and the policy is issued.

You may be wondering why I have colour coded my flow chart in white on dark blue, dark blue on white, and turquoise on white. Basically, while humans are involved at all stages in the flow chart, the white background show steps that are ready to be performed either by automation, or the use of "Data Science"/Analytics/ML/AI.






In this workflow above, I have added one actor “Analytics/ML/AI”, and instead of admin, we now have an automated process.

In this case, the rejection rates of application and delays to issue policies due to incomplete information disappear since the check of details (and verification for existing customers ensuring consistency) is done on the spot using smart forms. 

Once the forms are received electronically (note in the earlier workflow I skipped the scanning of paper forms which would just have made the comparison even more drastic), it is evaluated by the model/algorithms, firstly for insurability, and whether the case is standard. The non insurable and standard cases are dealt with instantly.

The underwriting team only has to focus on non-standard cases, and underwriting management with non standard cases beyond limits.

This process eliminates individual bias in the process since all policies are treated identically, considerably shortens the time it takes to evaluate the straight forward cases and shortens turn-around-time, while alleviating the burden from the underwriting team, allowing them to focus in fewer cases and be able to again turn around faster.

Of course analytics and automation can also play a role in the other hugely time and resource consuming area in insurance, claims.

Let’s take motor insurance claims for example, start with a very simplified process flow:






When a motor accident occurs, the customer sends pictures and makes a report (with help of producer or company employees) and a case is created. At a later stage, if necessary a police report and claim document are submitted and added to the case file. An estimate of involved cost will be provided by a 3rd party, usually an adjudicator. Then the claim, based on these submissions, is processed.

The assumption is that below a certain dollar value, an insurer does not stringently verify the claim, however above that value, two sorts of checks are carried out, one on the claimant, checking the probability of fraud, and the second on whether the documents support the damage. Anything that is not in line will warrant an investigation. These increase the cost of the claim to the insurance company. Then based on whether the all clear is obtained, the claim is approved and paid, or rejected.
What analytics can do is perform the fraud checks and evaluate claims automatically.



Using Analytics/ML/AI firstly allows the insurer to verify all claims if need be since the cost of checks is much lower and is the same for all cases. Hence, it is not possible for wannabe fraudsters to game the system by claiming just below the threshold amount they think the insurer uses.

3 different techniques are likely to be used, and combined.

For the customer check, graph databases are extremely efficient. For example, a classic case of fraud is the whiplash injury fraud where a group of people take on some roles: driver, passenger, victim, witness... and simulate an accident where the victim claims whiplash injury. Then they change roles and go again. Graph databases detect such circles very easily.

For the damage estimation, this is done via AI/ML; there are quite a few providers nowadays who offer this service even as an API. Hence being able to estimate the damage and the cost of repair is done via computer vision, being fed the photos of the current damaged vehicle.

To extract information from the accident reports, existing NLP or text mining algorithms including Name Entity Recognition algorithms can be used. This can be used for simple hygiene, extracting the weather, road conditions, speed... Then based on this information, models can be built to estimate the damage. The results of this and the damage estimation can be combined and validated.

The nice thing is that this process can be run quickly and across all claims; only those that do not clear the process would require human intervention to review for approval.

Hence the time to process claims (and the cost) drops as the Analytics takes care of most cases quickly and consistently, and the cases that do not clear the process are then referred to humans allowing focus and dedication to quickly clear more complex cases.

Ok, so what I am saying is that Analytics/ML/AI can help add consistency to insurance processes (applications, claims...), make the processes run faster and allow humans to really focus on these cases requiring specific attention.

No big deal, at least not enough to warrant the disclaimers and bragging at the beginning...

Actually, I will go further.

As I have shown above with 2 examples, most of the administration of insurance policies can be relatively easily converted to workflows, with some document management thrown in. In fact, I would argue that most insurance policy admin systems are just that, workflow and document management systems, with formulae (for calculating the next premium for example) built in.

The newer insurance systems acknowledge that by highlighting that they come with workflow templates to allow users to quick start including their products. But is that enough?

I would argue that these do not go far enough. 

I am not a technical guy nor am I very familiar with many cloud providers, so I will use GCP (Google Cloud Platform) as an example.

They have this very interesting product called data flow which allows you to create workflows just like the diagrams above, and each box has a specific task to accomplish. Another neat aspect of dataflow is that the boxes can be the running of algorithms, for example a simple decision tree to decide whether a risk is standard or not, or the application of a clustering model to decide the premium to be applied in a particular case. Hence, most non manual processes can be orchestrated with dataflow.

When dataflow is fed by another product pubsub that basically acts as a giant reservoir that holds requests and releases them as and when they are ready to be processed (either by pull or push) it becomes even more powerful.

It could be argued that traditional insurance systems can also be tweaked to make the workflows more automated, but where size comes into the picture, the winner is clear.

Most insurance systems are chunky. They come at a certain price and can manage a certain number of cases. So if you are a new company, you might be getting something too big for you.  On the other hand, once you decide a size, it can be quite hard to quickly scale up and scale back down again.

This is what GCP allows insurance companies to do. Pubsub allows insurance companies to accept huge volumes of applications that arrive in a very quick succession or even simultaneously and make sure none are lost (the order they are attended to may be messed up but no application should be lost). 

Then since it is a no-ops cloud product the size of/number of machines required temporarily to process this huge workload can be put online in minutes, process the applications, and shutdown when they are not needed.

The data, once processed by dataflow, can be pushed to big table (to take advantage of low-latency and be easily updatable) (and say cloud storage for pictures for example).

A simple example will illustrate the point. Let’s say, an insurance company decides to offer accident coverage to participants of the Standard Chart Marathon, all 50,000 of them. The applications come in fast and furious during registration, these need to be processed, approved quickly, and then you won’t need such processing power immediately.

What of the next event you want to cover is the OCBC Mass Cycling event but this time want to insure the bikes...

The other nice thing about dataflow is that creating a new workflow can be done in python, not some arcane language.

Basically insurance companies using a cloud service with something like GCP’s pubsub, dataflow, ML and storage like Big Table (which can include metadata about pictures) and something like Cloud Storage for actual pictures/scans together with APIs (for example to verify payments have been made) can substantially simplify their processes, make them much more responsive to business needs, and allow themselves the flexibility of creating new products and/or new processes that suit them and their customers rather than relying on pre-packaged generic products.

Again, I’d just like to reiterate I am using GCP as an example and I am sure other cloud providers can offer similar advantages.

However the conclusion, to me, is still valid. If the main reason insurance companies are tied to traditional insurance management systems is legacy, new insurers are at an amazing advantage. Technology today allows them to create new, flexible workflows, be able to customise products for micro-insurance/event insurance, and process them in a timely manner by quickly scaling up and down as required, and use very generic skills (python) to do so.

Does that mean that traditional insurers are going to be extinct? No. It’s just that their legacy is a burden, but no one stops them from using new technology to create and manage micro-insurance/event-insurance, new products to serve their customers better, to run in parallel with their current systems as these are sunset and the functions ported over.

The key is to find ways to efficiently serve your customers exactly how they want to be served, customised products, flexible options, true customer centricity. This is the true advantage and the technology is just an enabler.

The insurance industry is ripe for disruption and the appropriate use of technology, sacrificing some sacred cows, and re-thinking and customising products while retaining flexibility is the way forward.






Sunday, 18 February 2018

Know how to address your relatives for Chinese New Year, or ontologise like a "data scientist" while visiting



One of things I usually say about “Data Science” is that a lot of what is being done today has been in existence for a long while, but if being used differently/more extensively partially aided by technological advances.

Ontologies are no different; they have been around for a long while. Most of us have come across taxonomies.

Put simply a taxonomy is a way of classifying stuff in a hierarchy of concepts, such as parent-child, class-sub-class, for example a family tree, useful for Chinese New Year(1), GXFC!



And since this is the lunar year of the dog , let’s look at the order of canidae:


So what’s the difference between a taxonomy and an ontology?

Basically an ontology can capture much more than parent-child type relationships. It is designed to capture ideas.

In fact the earliest known versions of ontologies date back to the ancient Greeks. Ontology is the philosophical study of the nature of being, becoming, existence or reality as well as the basic categories and their relations (2). Ontology is the study of being, existence, essence, and the relations between the different components. 

Ontologies physically manifested and be used as systems to capture knowledge in a certain area, and allow the representation of relationships between the concepts in that area. It can be used as a knowledge base, and that’s one form where it can be useful in “Data Science” for example.

Another thing I always say about “data science” is that the software doesn’t matter much; most software will have the most common formulae/algorithms, hence it is how you use the algorithms, knowing which to use when that is critical, not the software that is just a tool.

However, not all formulations of these algorithms are identical, hence for people new to some software mistakes can creep in unnoticed and bad decisions made.

A simple example will illustrate what I mean. For example if you are doing a simple hypothesis test based on the normal distribution and you key in the mean and standard deviation as you are used to. The p-values/CI are calculated accordingly. Now imagine the software was expecting the variance rather than the standard deviation; for the computation of the limits, it will take the square-root of the ‘variance’ and you are more likely not to reject the null than you should.

Hence enabling a user to quickly reference the parameters of a formula is very useful.


But an ontology can do much more than that. It’s not just different versions of one formula, but also the ability to know what are the closely related formulae/algorithms. This allows the users to pick the best algorithm for the problem they  are trying to solve.


Continuing the example above, what is some of the assumptions of the normal distribution have been violated? Even if you used the correct parameters, the result would likely still be invalid because the formula should not be used. Again this could lead to wrong conclusions.

This is where ProbOnto (3) can be useful. Probonto is an ontology of major probability distributions clearly enumerating the parameters that each formulation expects and the relationship between the formulae.


For example, if you are planning to use a binomial distribution B(n,p), if n, the sample size is large enough, it can be approximated by a normal distribution with mean np and variance np(1-p).


Or if X is a lognormal variable with a certain mean and variance, then log(X) follows a normal distribution with the same parameters. Lognormal distributions are often used in looking at pricing stocks and options; they are at the heart of the Black-Scholes model.

In sum, an ontology can be used as a great way of storing knowledge, as shown by ProbOnto. But is it only useful to forgetful people with some statistics background? And if so, why this blog from me?

Well, ontologies can also have very practical applications even if used purely as knowledge bases. They can be used to capture human knowledge in a systematic way and be used to solve business problems.

Let me take a simple example. If an organisation wants to automatically assess the impact of news on its business how can it do that quickly? 

Organising large volumes of text, extracting key words and arranging them in groups based on the context and enabling measuring the distance between words is what word2vec (4) does. While word2vec has been used for some domains such as in the domain of genes and proteins (5) and radiology (6).

However, not all organisations have the skill, know-how, large enough dataset and time to do their own implementation. However what many organisations do have is in-house know-how and experience.from their own people. Ontologies can be used to represent the knowledge from the experts and represent the words within the context at hand. 

For example, think of the case of the news of a proliferation of chilo infescatellus/sugar cane shoot borer(7) in India, threatening a large part of Indian sugar output 6 months down the road.

If you are an investment advisor, this means that output of sugar will fall; you don’t care about the insect causing the issues, prices are expected to rise, as such customers should buy sugar. Also, our ontology would tell you that alternate sources of sugar could be Brazil and China, and Cosan (8) might be a good stock to buy given their importance on the Brazilian market as well as their diversification into ethanol and other bi-products (ability to quickly change output mix).

But on the other hand, if you are in the chemicals and fertiliser business, the type of insect matters; you will know that there is little pesticides can do, hence given the type of infestation, there is no impact on your business, unlike say if the infestation was of scipophaga excerptalis/sugar cane top borer(9).

It is difficult to expect an out of the box algorithm to be able to work as well in both these 2 contexts, and that’s where ontologies built using human experience and knowledge can bridge or even adequately fill the gap.


  1. https://mustsharenews.com/addressing-relatives-cny/
  2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontology
  3. https://sites.google.com/site/probonto/home
  4. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1301.3781.pdf
  5. http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0141287
  6. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1532046417302575
  7. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chilo_infuscatellus
  8. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosan
  9. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scirpophaga_excerptalis
 

Wednesday, 7 February 2018

Tragedy of commons: what do Elephants and Bicycles have in common?





The other day while crossing the road near the very posh offices at Marina Bay Financial Centre (Home of DBS, SCB, IBM…) I saw a very amusing sight.



A bicycle from one of the bike sharing companies was abandoned, chain out, with the chain and gear rusting at the junction. 

What was even more amusing was the little pink piece of paper.



It is a notice from the Land Transport Authority, it says:
“Please do not park your bicycle/PAB/PMD here. It is an offence to park your bicycle/PAB/PMB other than in a designated parking lot/rack. Your action causes obstruction and/or inconvenience to other path users.
Please remove your bicycle/PAB/PMD from this location and place it in a proper parking lot/rack.
Thank you for your…”

I find this very amusing.
  1. Who was the notice addressed to? The individual who dumped the bicycle, or the owner of the bicycle? These are clearly 2 people/entities (unless the owner of obike did this, which is kind of unlikely, they are on the other side of the road).
  2. What is the aim of the piece of paper, increase litter? Given that it is unlikely that the person who dropped the bike to rust will pick it up, and that no one else would like to pay for a bike that is less that functional, what does this piece of paper achieve?

I wonder why this one didn’t get the pink piece of paper; it was just lying there in the passage way.



And if you look carefully in the background, you will see another bicycle (this one likely owned by an individual) locked against the lamppost near the red umbrellas.


So is this called parking, or is this called littering? I refer you to paragraph 17 of the environment and public health act (1): 
“17. No person shall —

(a) deposit, drop, place or throw any dust, dirt, paper, ash, carcase, refuse, box, barrel, bale or any other article or thing in any public place
“ 
The above is kind of the only description that might apply; no it is not swill, or mucus, or food, or motor vehicle whose registration has expired (hmmm about PMD though, but that’s not my topic). What if I just leave a backpack where this bicycle was left, would I be littering? Well if the bicycle wasn’t litter why should my backpack?
There is another little twist I would like to add before I start talking about elephants.



I was having brunch the other day (yutaio and kopio) when I came across this corner of the newly renovated playground that has been reserved as a designated parking lot/rack.

That got me thinking, how much are the companies providing bike sharing services paying the government for this space? It’s can’t be just normal corporate taxes, does anyone with ties with the government know? If they are not renting this space from the government then their costs of business are lower than they should be (basically being subsidised by the government using taxpayer funds). 

Oh and don’t tell me these are public property, they are not; an organisation owns them and if profiting when the public uses them.

And this brings me to elephants.

Many years ago, I helped one of my professors write a paper for a conference about conservation and our paper was about the tragedy of commons. (yes, economics again (2)). The idea we presented was that one of the reasons why elephants were being poached at such an alarming pace and nobody was protecting them as the issue of ownership.

Since elephants are wild, they belong to no one. And no one has any incentive (except people with conservationist tendencies or who simply love animals) to protect them. Belonging to no one is akin to belonging to everyone, and if I don’t take the ivory, someone else will, so I better act fast.

To make matters worse, some farmers might dislike the elephants because the pachyderms sometimes destroy their crops (as farmland gets closer to the ‘wild’).

What we proposed was to give the right to earn tourist dollars for example from a herd of elephants to some people living in the area where the herd spends a lot of time. Then the elephant becomes valuable and worth defending.
So what does that have to do with the bikes?

The reason the situation with the bikes is so weird is the question of ownership. The person who ‘parked’ the bicycle on the patch of grass does not own the bicycle. The company who owns the bike maintains the story of “sharing” but does own the bike. However they have ‘sold’ each bike many times over. 

What I mean is that every person who subscribes to the service pays for the usage (likely puts a deposit from where the usage charges are deducted), and the bike sharing company has managed to sell the services of 1 bicycle to many people. But these people only have the rights to a bicycle if they can find one when they want to avail of that service. As long as they have ‘sold’ the service from the bike to enough people, and that covers the ‘capital outlay” then what follows is mostly profit (minus repair, maintenance and running costs and any fines haha).

In places like Singapore where people tend to be law abiding (and is small) it is unlikely that you will find a bike graveyard (3) (The colourful objects at the top and bottom of the photo are cranes and heavy lorries):



So does that mean that the tragedy of commons does not apply? The bicycles do have owners.

But as long as the costs of the bikes have been recouped, then there is no incentive for the owners of the bike sharing companies to take care of them or be responsible for them (especially if fines are paltry). Then the bicycle becomes a truly common property and I am sure we will see more and more rusty bicycles parked indiscriminately. Remember, the bike companies know exactly who left the bicycle exactly where. If they wanted to do something about it they could; it’s just that it’s not worth the effort.

And if you are wondering what the government is doing about it, they consider is a ‘disamenity’ (not littering) (4) and said please do not do this, and sign this Memorandum whereby “Operators will also remove faulty bicycles within a day. “ and that is a joke because the bicycle in the picture was there for many days.

So what is the cost? As this article shows (5), “out of the 292 removal notices issued, 62 bicycles ended up being impounded because they were not removed within half a day of the notice”, I wonder how the notices were issued, who was made aware of the pink piece of paper and how? Or more pertinently why use the pink piece of paper? The government seems to let people believe that GPS technology is so bad that it cannot be used to pin point whether the bicycle is at a “designated park/rack”… Or are we allowed to place all sorts of stuff (not candy wrappers, swill, snot…) for half a day anywhere without any problem?

I just think it is not sharing when one party makes all the $ and other parties pay for it.