Using data to control covid19 - SG how to do better

 I am quite disappointed in the way the Singapore government has handled the covid-19 situation recently. I have mentioned in previous blogs that, apart from the issue of Covid in the foreign workers dormitories, the government had done a good job. However, the recent developments leave me disappointed. Data and analytics, to me, lie at the heart of dealing with Covid19, but unfortunately, the Singapore government as high as it could be on the analytics maturity scale. In this blog post, I will explain why.

 

But first some background. We have basically had 2 tools for contact tracing, using 2 different technological approaches and focusing on 2 different things.

Initially, Singapore was officially going via checking-in and checking-out from venues; and that includes parks, not just shops and buildings, and shops/offices within buildings. Almost everywhere you would find QR codes for you to scan. For people without mobile phones, they could use their identity card to register.

What this data allows the government to do is keep track who is in an area and when. The idea is that if someone who is infectious spent time in the same location as you with overlapping time, then you can be sent an appropriate message.

To me, the advantage of this is that it is a low battery utilisation solution, but is quite blunt in the sense that if the shop/building you went to is large, it is possible that you never crossed paths with the infectious person. Basically, you may get a lot of false positives (people who may be tagged as at risk of infection, but whose risk is actually very low).

Then, GovTech, the government’s technology arm, came up with a blue-tooth based tracking system. This one basically captures the signal of all devices in your proximity and records them. Hence you would be informed only if you were in the same space and the same time (close and long enough to establish the Bluetooth connection) as an infectious person.

The advantage of this is that it minimises false positives, but if the virus lingers, increases false negatives (cases when it is thought people are not infected but actually are). That is, if the virus lingers after the infectious person has gone out of range of your device and you walk into that space, and you are at risk, the blue tooth device does not capture this.

Also, this solution is more energy consuming than the previous one. In mitigation, the government provided physical trackers that do not rely on phone battery.

Now, to minimise the cases of false negatives, the government also has people checking in into buildings like previously, but not in specific shops necessarily (this is no longer stringently checked – earlier people were at the doors to enforce). Still, this decreases false negatives since people can be warned even if it was not ‘same time, same place’.

While I was writing this blog, it was just announced that checking-in and out of markets and food courts will be mandatory. And, already some shops have dedicated staff, again, to ensure checking in.

Hence, in terms of technology, Singapore is among the leaders. So why do I say that the analytical maturity of the government is not that high?

Analytics is not about the latest tech, collecting the most information, it’s about collecting and analysing the data you need to answer an issue and making sure the implementation of the analytics is done properly. And to me the government has failed. 

1             The data collected has to be fit for purpose

The earlier QR code driven system captured who was where and when. This means that, it is possible to say, among the people in Singapore who was in a particular mall, or shop, or park at the same time.  Furthermore, it is also easy to see who was in a certain location a while after you left. The blue-tooth method captures who is in close proximity, same time same place.

My question is, which one do you think captures the data required to assess risk of covid better? Not just in terms of minimising false positives or false negatives (this is important), but also in term of capturing the behaviour of the virus.

If covid can only be transmitted by people right next to you, then the blue-tooth method is better. It covers anyone near me who may be at risk if I was infectious. However, if covid can linger in the air or on surfaces after I have left, then the blue-tooth data is utterly inadequate. It does not show who came after me once I was out of blue tooth range.

I understand that what we know of the virus has changed over time, but the idea that close proximity long exposure contact is necessary for infection has been very heavily challenged. You do not want to risk having false negatives going about daily life normally and potentially spreading the virus.

Now this has partially been addressed by enforcing QR check-ins on top of blue-tooth. Stopping checking-in enforcement at shops (say NTUC supermarket) was always strange to me. 

2             People need to be producing the data

Let’s say you have a nice method to collect relevant data, if the data being created and collected? In my view, doing the ‘techy’ things is the easy bit, just like running data through an algorithm is the easiest part of ‘data science’. Getting the data that suits, and interpreting it are critical. This is where, in my view, the Singapore government falls short.

2.1         Inadequate Data

Minister Ong Ye Kun spelt it out, “But we strongly suspect, and the police also strongly suspect, that the data we have using TraceTogether and SafeEntry are not comprehensive,” he said, emphasising that there is a limit to which they can use the data gathered through the contact tracing platforms. “(1) 

“There is a limit to which they can use the data gathered through the contact tracing” may be interpreted in many ways:

A- Rules restrict how the data is used.

In this case this would not make sense. The data is being used for the purpose it was contributed by every one who carries and uses the app or token.

B- The data is not fit for purpose

As discussed, the data that the government has on hand is a result of the process of collection. The decision was made to go blue-tooth and risk false negatives and ignore the potential effects of transmission via air/surfaces. This is ok if that was the conventional wisdom at the time. However, deciding not to still enforce the checking-in at shops, in my view, was a short-sighted move.

To this I would add the idea that there was some over-confidence “The SNDGO said that even without check-out data, the Ministry of Health (MOH) can estimate how long a person had been in various venues based on SafeEntry check-ins at other locations, for example.”  Where SNDGO means Smart Nation and Digital Government Office (2) As someone who has spent some time in the field, I would hesitate to implement some models when stakes are so high. You can use models to estimate missing data, but it’s not a good idea to deliberately not capture data when accuracy is important. Over-confidence is, in my view, a sign of an organisation that is not mature.

It’s not that it is not possible to make such estimates, but when stakes are high as in the case of covid, the costs of mistakes are large, and when the costs are not large, it makes sense to gather actual data. For example, if it was to calculate people’s steps, it may have been acceptable to estimate, but really not when you are using the data to manage covid 19. And this ties into the final aspect of what the minister said.

2.2         Insufficient Data

“We suspect and the police also strongly suspect, that the data we have using TraceTogether and SafeEntry are not comprehensive”

This is very interesting because as early as March 2021, the government used data to make trace together compulsory; stating that 90% of residents had downloaded trace together voluntarily, the government made it compulsory (3)(4).

As anyone who measures app acceptance and usage would tell you, downloads and users are 2 very different measures. Unless the people who did not download the app are precisely the people who are at risk of infection, it would mean that people do not use the app, and the 90% number used was misleading.

Now, add to this the fact that checking-in and out was not enforced, and you have easily identifiable potential cracks in the system.

The question is why would people bother to download the app but not use it properly. I think there are 2 main reasons. And again, these indicate an organisation that was still in fields of dream mode ‘If I built the app, they will use’ (5) focused on the tech. 

A- Trust

It takes trust to allow someone to track your movements; and the people in Singapore willingly gave up their data to help contact tracing to contain Covid19. However, the government eroded the trust. While when TraceTogether was launched, people were assured the data would be used purely for contact tracing. The government back-tracked 6 months later (6)(7).

Add to this the fact that the government recently publicised the confidentiality of testing for people from the recent clusters. (8) This may lead people to think that their tests are generally not confidential. 

B- Privacy

Trust is not helped by the lack of privacy in cases of Covid. Everyone in Singapore knows that the first person to go to a doctor in the recent case is a person from Vietnam who entered Singapore via the familial lane. Similarly, everyone also knows that one of the infected people was a stall assistant in a particular stall at a particular hawker centre.

On one hand you have people sued under Official Secrets Act (OSA) for leaking the number of covid cases (9) (interestingly it was the head of the data unit who leaked the info), or when restrictions would hit (10), on the other privacy of individuals is easily breached and publicised without anyone taking umbrage– for example, a man on the street would not know how to verify whether someone came into Singapore via familial lanes(11), or fellow stall holders wouldn’t know who the infected fellow stall holder is (12). Hasn’t the SingHealth issues with privacy of data of people in Singapore taught us anything? Are we going to keep on making the same mistakes?

C- Education

I was having a discussion with a friend about the TraceTogether app. We disagreed on how it should be used. My view is that it should be on all the time, at least in public. On the other hand, she said it was sufficient to turn it on, check-in to the buildings, and you turn it off again. Basically, to me, using TraceTogether as you would safe-entry.

I tried to find evidence that I was right ( 😊 ), but the website of TraceTogether, the FAQs, simply do not answer “how do I use this app”. Educating users is critical if we want to capture the data needed. Assuming that people will know, or there is no need to explain, again, is the hallmark of a technology driven push, ignoring implementation, basically not that high analytical maturity.

I know this friend for many years, and she is no mug. The fact that we can disagree over something as fundamental as to how the app is to be used likely means that there are many people who are unsure about how to use the app. (I am sure that people who use the physical token were given proper instructions upon collection, but when you download the app, there is no one explaining the usage next to you)

In Sum

I believe that how the Singapore Government has dealt with the case outlined above shows that the government’s tech arm is great at building and making technological solutions available, however it lacks in all the thinking surrounding technology from

•         the right data is captured to address the situation
•         the users are fully aware of what data they are sharing and how it will be used
•         the users trust the system to protect their privacy

I would add a fourth point, as I pointed out earlier, technology/data is not magic, it is important to

o   know what can (should) be done and what cannot (should not) (I am not talking about ethics here, but cold calculations and decisions about false negatives, false positives, and weighing the impact)

o   address any issues, not only using technology, but all the strategy around A Trust, B Privacy, and C Education that can complement technology and enhance the quality and quantity of data.

Parting words

I believe all of us want to get out of restrictions and are willing to sacrifice some privacy and go through some inconveniences to achieve this. Like everywhere there will be some people who may not agree but the trick is to ensure these people are a minority so the analytics can deliver results we all want. I believe that the Singapore Government should spend more effort on the whole solution, rather than focus on technology and treat the other important pieces to the holistic solution as after thoughts. Only then would the government become more mature in its use of data and become data driven, for the sake of people, not technology.

 

 

1 https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/confidential-covid-19-tests-for-those-who-visited-ktv-lounges-interacted-with

2 https://www.straitstimes.com/tech/tech-news/why-its-not-compulsory-to-do-a-safeentry-check-out

3 https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/mandatory-use-of-tracetogether-token-or-app-for-checking-in-at-malls-workplaces-schools-to

4 https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/almost-90-per-cent-of-residents-on-tracetogether-programme

5 https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0097351/

6 https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/vivian-balakrishnan-says-he-deeply-regrets-mistake-on-tracetogether-data-first-realised-it

7 https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/01/11/1016004/singapore-tracetogether-contact-tracing-police/

8 https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/confidential-covid-19-tests-for-those-who-visited-ktv-lounges-interacted-with

9 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/former-moh-deputy-lead-osa-covid-19-case-numbers-leak-14615394

10 https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/51-year-old-public-servant-to-be-charged-under-osa-with-releasing-information-about-phase

11 https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/vietnamese-woman-who-is-first-case-of-ktv-cluster-came-here-in-feb-via-familial-ties-lane

12 https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/toa-payoh-hawker-centre-closed-for-deep-cleaning-after-stall-assistant-who

Myanmar 100 days - “They shoot in the head, but they don’t know the revolution is in the heart.” - RIP Khet Thi

Myanmar, 100 days. It has been 100 days since the military decided that the elections were so fraudulent that they faced the risk of not being able to maintain their economic benefits from the country, and took matters in their own hands, or rather at the end of rifles and canons.

I have lived in Myanmar for a year, enjoyed the beauty of the Shwedagon, the delights of street-food (yes, including crickets to rival Thai street food), weekly bbq and beer a few metres away from my block of flats or alternatively a short walk from the office (sorry, it was mainly Myanmar beer), but what I appreciated the most of all was the colleagues and staff whom I would like to call friends.

My circle of friends has a group of older people who were still eager to learn, cognisant that the previous isolation brought about by the previous military government set the country back in terms of more ‘modern’ tools, technologies and practices. But also younger people, who despite the claims of some close-minded ‘expats’ are very well trained in the latest technologies, and eager to learn and put them into practice. Add to this the very nationalistic – I stress nationalistic, not religion-based but nation-based – view of the young people, very eager to play their role in growing their nation. People eager to share their experiences, and from whom it was easy to learn from and exchange views.

I will try to be brief, put some pointers that I hope will help everyone understand a bit of the situation so each can do his/her own research and hopefully take a stand.

1 Right from day 1, the military deployed troops fighting at the borders into towns

Myanmar has been fighting along the borders, whether with Bangladesh (the notorious Rohingya situation) or with China (the Shan and Kachin states) or with Thailand (Kayah and Kayin States). The army units deployed in these areas have seen combat, and have killed people (or more).

For example the 33^rd light infantry, alleged to have been involved in operations in Rakhine (1); they are now in Mandalay (2)(3). The 77^th known for their behaviour in 2007 (4) was deployed to Yangon (5). (6)

It is obvious that the military government was prepared to “let slip the dogs of war” on its own people right from day 1 if need be.

2 The army is a major player in the economy of Myanmar

In 2019, the UN published a report that made clear the extent of the army’s involvement and the roles generals (both in service and retired). The important thing here is that this may show motive as to why the military needs to retain its grip on power.

The report (7) details the role of the Myanmar Economic Holding Limited (MEHL) and Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC), the crony companies who either share assets or give right to assets to the military, or contribute to their funds, the military’s involvement in jade and ruby extraction.

Very pertinent to those of us who are foreigners is how many of the foreign companies engaged in Myanmar, whether willingly/knowingly or not are in joint venture with the army.

A neat but old graphical representation of the links between the military and the MEHL and MEC can be found in the annex of the report by the UN (8)

Some major international companies are involved such as Kirin, POSCO, Andani (9). Normal people like you and me have taken action to force some of these companies to take a stand, for example POSCO (10).

3 Singapore has been a target

Singapore is one of the countries with heaviest investment in Myanmar. Some portion of these investments have most likely been made with the military, again from the UN report (8) page 29 “the Managing Director of Asia World Group, Steven Law (also known as Htun Myint Naing), has been accused by the U.S. Government of involvement in laundering money for the Tatmadaw. Asia World has three “overseas branch companies” in Singapore, run by Steven Law and his spouse Cecilia Ng, a Singaporean national. More than half of Singapore’s investment in Myanmar reportedly goes through partnerships with Asia World Group, totaling more than USD 1.3 billion.”  

Not only is the Kirin investment made via a company in Singapore. Some interesting companies are based in Singapore are under the spotlight, for example STE Global Trading Pte Ltd(10). But these are not something individuals without specialised skills can do anything about (I mean lawyers). But what we can do is hold the management of companies we own shares in to account and get clear answers.

And I don’t mean something as wishy-washy as “no significant funds from Myanmar companies, individuals in Singapore banks”(12) especially when you contrast this to the numbers protestors are brandishing ($5.7b (13)).

4 The International Community has its own interests

The problem with expecting the international community to do something is that each country/regime has its own interests.

For example, the volume of rare earth minerals moving from Myanmar into China has multiplied, “Before the coup, we only saw one or two trucks per day. Now there is no proper inspection we are seeing 10 to 15” (14)

ASEAN did take stand and all agreed to a 5 point consensus (15):

Five-Point Consensus on the situation in Myanmar, the Leaders reached consensus on the following:

• First, there shall be immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar and all parties shall exercise utmost restraint.
• Second, constructive dialogue among all parties concerned shall commence to seek a peaceful solution in the interests of the people.
• Third, a special envoy of the ASEAN Chair shall facilitate mediation of the dialogue process, with the assistance of the Secretary-General of ASEAN.
• Fourth, ASEAN shall provide humanitarian assistance through the AHA Centre.
• Fifth, the special envoy and delegation shall visit Myanmar to meet with all parties concerned.

But without any timeline… I guess “immediate” is also relative…

5 The situation is not de-escalating

There is no ceasefire. People are being killed, more than 750 protesters killed since Feb 1 (16).

People are being arrested, and tortured (17), some to death and their bodies returned to their families with organs missing (18).

Summary

What can you do?

Do some research, the links I have posted are just a beginning.

Decide whether what is happening in Myanmar is something you think is wrong.

If yes, take action:

if you are a shareholder in a company investing in Myanmar, ask the management whether the company is in bed with the military and if yes what they intend to do about it.

Think about whether to stop consuming products from organisations that are helping the military, some links (19), (20), (21). It is not an easy thing to do, but, as mentioned above, if you are a shareholder in these companies, you have the right to get answers.

• 1 https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/myanmar-rohingya-battalions/
• 2 https://twitter.com/matthewfsmith/status/1363113462407249934
• 3 https://voi.id/en/news/34527/myanmar-military-s-33rd-light-infantry-division-is-blamed-for-deadly-violence-at-weekend
• 4 https://www.wionews.com/photos/how-militarys-infantry-division-shock-troops-have-subjugated-myanmar-363939#myanmar-infantry-vs-rohingyas-363929
• 5 https://twitter.com/poppymcp/status/1361201684861513728?lang=en
• 6 http://thegatesofbabylon.blogspot.com/2021/03/myanmar-2-walao-do-something-leh.html
• 7 https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/FFM-Myanmar/EconomicInterestsMyanmarMilitary/A_HRC_42_CRP_3.pdf
• 8 https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/FFM-Myanmar/EconomicInterestsMyanmarMilitary/Infographic1_Governance_Structure_of_MEHL_and_MEC.pdf
• 9 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-sanctions-f-idUSKBN2BH26I
• 10 https://twitter.com/graceykai/status/1364120709526552576
• 11 https://burmacampaign.org.uk/take-action/ste-global-trading-pte/
• 12 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/mas-myanmar-no-significant-funds-in-singapore-banks-14263420
• 13 https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/singapore-says-banks-dont-hold-significant-funds-myanmar.html
• 14 https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2112407/illegal-rare-earth-mining-surges-in-myanmar
• 15 https://asean.org/storage/Chairmans-Statement-on-ALM-Five-Point-Consensus-24-April-2021-FINAL-a-1.pdf
• 16 https://aappb.org/?p=14961
• 17 https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/27/asia/myanmar-coup-detainees-torture-intl-hnk/index.html
• 18 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/10/body-of-arrested-myanmar-poet-khet-thi-returned-to-family-with-organs-missing
• 19 https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/latest-news/myanmar-fact-finding-mission-identifies-businesses-linked-to-the-military-that-is-accused-of-serious-rights-violations-some-companies-respond/
• 20 https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/latest-news/myanmar-groups-call-on-more-companies-allegedly-linked-to-military-to-sever-ties/
• 21 https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2020/09/mehl-military-links-to-global-businesses/

 

82-18 rule

 

According to a Tableau ad that appeared while I was surfing, 82% of data-driven leaders say that data was a critical advantage during covid 19.

To the 18%, can you still call yourself data-driven if you do not believe that data was a critical advantage?

Myanmar 2 - "Walao, Do Something, leh!"

This is my second blogpost on Myanmar, and since my first one, I spoke to a few people (within the phase 2 rules) and decided that I could share more information and give more opinions (what’s new?). But still, one of my running themes is that if enough of us, as individuals, put our money where our minds/mouths are, we can start affecting change.

1 What’s the big deal about specific army units?

One of the things that may surprise outsiders is why do local reports from Myanmar usually mention the army units in the different towns. This actually matters a lot.

From the beginning, on Feb 2 itself, troops moved into towns. These were troops that have been involved in regular fighting along the borders. For example the 33^rd light infantry, alleged to have been involved in operations in Rakhine (1); they are now in Mandalay (2)(3). The 77^th known for their behaviour in 2007 (4) was deployed to Yangon (5) Let me re-iterate, troops that have been involved in real fighting at the borders, have been moved into town centres. You can’t say the military did not plan properly; they know exactly what they are doing, and so do all other governments and international bodies.

2 Why are Singapore businesses being targeted?

There has been a campaign in Myanmar to boycott certain Singapore brands (6). Why is that so? Yangon is probably the city in Asia that I have visited and that has the most Singapore-grown brands, where it it tiger beer is popular,I have enjoyed ya-kun kaya toast, harry’s, and even had my first koi boba in a mall walking distance from where I used to live…

Singapore is the largest investor in Myanmar (7)(8). But investing in Myanmar is not straightforward.

2a The military in Myanmar has commercial arms

It is well known to people who have spent time in Myanmar that the military is very deeply engaged in the economy of Myanmar(9); the MEC and MEHL are large corporations with fingers in many pies and close ties to the military.

And it’s not only currenlt military figures, as shown by this infographic regarding the Patron Group of the MEHL (10)

2b Many investments into Myanmar go through intermediaries

A UN report as early as 2019 shows that the military have other linked companies (11). I would like to quote a certain point, page 29: “There are also serious allegations of crony companies concealing the wealth of the Tatmadaw and its leadership. These allegations require further investigation. The Mission notes however that the Managing Director of Asia World Group, Steven Law (also known as Htun Myint Naing), has been accused by the U.S. Government of involvement in laundering money for the Tatmadaw.Asia World has three “overseas branch companies” in Singapore, run by Steven Law and his spouse Cecilia Ng, a Singaporean national. More than half of Singapore’s investment in Myanmar reportedly goes through partnerships with Asia World Group, totalling more than USD 1.3 billion.”

So it is important for companies in Myanmar to come clean about their investments and whether they are contributing to the military (12). Kirin, the Japanese beer, has allegedly trying to break its ties (13) (Interestingly the other partner is MEHL itself, no intermediary). And they will pull out within a year (14). Anyway, no more Myanmar beer for me.

I believe the companies that have invested in Myanmar should come clean about their involvement with the military, and let us, the consumers decide. Else, I can understand why all firms fall under suspicion.

3 what each one of us can do as individuals

We are consumers. If we believe that the situation in Myanmar should not continue, then we should change our consumption patterns accordingly. For example I am stopping consumption of Myanmar beer. But I am in Singapore and rarely have access to Myanmar beer, so what else can I do?

Many people in Myanmar believe that a lot of the funds of the people currently in power is somehow in Singapore and also that a large chunk of the country’s reserves are held in Singapore (15). The central bank (MAS) contacted local banks and the result was that “no significant funds from Myanmar companies and individuals found in Singapore” (16).

There are 2 interesting bits:

1 no mention of the 5.7b reserves, these should not be tied to companies and individuals.

2 the word ‘significant’

It would really be nice to know the number. Plus sometimes it’s not whether the money stays into the accounts, but the flow of funds.

A while ago, I did this piece of work (17) about flows of funds in a bank. You can relatively easily trace funds and see round trips, or especially cases where money rests for a while into an account before being moved on, having a new ‘source’ attached to it.

I am more than willing to do something similar for any local banks for free, just to trace money from Myanmar, anonymously of course. If anyone reading this blog can influence the banks, just ping me 😊

I believe that, in an age when people are talking about sustainability, green passport, investors should also take into account the flow of blood (18)(19)(20)(21), don’t you?

And I would extend this to (Singapore-based) companies who have invested in Myanmar, I think their investors would be interested in knowing whether the military is benefiting from these investments, whether the capital gains and/or dividends are coloured red.

Conclusion

In conclusion:

1 The situation in Myanmar is very troubling and people are getting killed. This is not an accident

2 If any change is to happen, it has to come via putting pressure on the powers that be, and that goes through the assets held by these powers.

3 As individuals, those of us who are bothered by the situation, we could simply ask, especially if we are shareholders, whether the companies who invested in Myanmar are ‘in bed’ with the military, and whether locally based banks are holding funds or transaction accounts that are related to the people who have taken power outside the election.

 

I will leave you with some photos I have found on the internet.

(15)

(22)

(23)

(24)

(25)

(26)

(27)

1 https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/myanmar-rohingya-battalions/

2 https://twitter.com/matthewfsmith/status/1363113462407249934

3 https://voi.id/en/news/34527/myanmar-military-s-33rd-light-infantry-division-is-blamed-for-deadly-violence-at-weekend

4 https://www.wionews.com/photos/how-militarys-infantry-division-shock-troops-have-subjugated-myanmar-363939#myanmar-infantry-vs-rohingyas-363929

5 https://twitter.com/poppymcp/status/1361201684861513728?lang=en

6 https://coconuts.co/singapore/news/singapore-brands-face-myanmar-boycott-for-supporting-the-dictatorship/

7 https://www.enterprisesg.gov.sg/media-centre/news/2019/june/singapore-is-largest-investor-in-myanmar

8 https://www.dica.gov.mm/sites/dica.gov.mm/files/document-files/fdi_country_9.pdf

9 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313249258_Myanmar_the_military-commercial_complex

10 https://www.facebook.com/justiceformyanmar.org/photos/two-retired-myanmar-military-generals-brig-gen-kyaw-htin-and-major-ni-aung-now-s/157984919227384/

11 https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/FFM-Myanmar/EconomicInterestsMyanmarMilitary/A_HRC_42_CRP_3.pdf

12 https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2069215/asian-firms-urged-to-do-their-duty-break-with-myanmar-military

13 https://fortune.com/2021/02/20/myanmar-military-coup-2021-businesses-companies/

14 https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Japan-s-Kirin-seeks-end-to-Myanmar-ventures-within-a-year-CEO

15 https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/singapore-says-banks-dont-hold-significant-funds-myanmar.html

16 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/mas-myanmar-no-significant-funds-in-singapore-banks-14263420

17 From “The Art of Analytics” by Tony Ohlsson and Alex Heidl Teradata https://books.google.com.sg/books/about/The_Art_of_Analytics.html?id=rxlFvgAACAAJ&redir_esc=y

18 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/11/seven-dead-in-myanmar-as-amnesty-accuses-army-of-killing-spree

19 https://www.myanmar-now.org/en/news/six-killed-in-myaing-protest-crackdown

20 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/3/un-envoy-says-38-dead-in-bloodiest-day-since-coup-hit-myanmar

21 https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Myanmar-Coup/Myanmar-coup-latest-South-Korea-to-suspend-defense-exchange

22 https://coconuts.co/singapore/news/anti-drone-guns-meant-to-protect-myanmars-people-trd-singapore/

23 https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/protesters-in-myanmar-pressure-singapore-firms-to-leave

24 https://www.marketing-interactive.com/tiger-beer-breadtalk-and-ya-kun-kaya-toast-among-sg-brands-facing-boycott-in-myanmar

25 https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3122254/myanmar-protesters-pressure-singapore-stand-justice-and-compel

26 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/13/myanmar-protesters-killed-as-police-fire-live-ammunition

27 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/09/shoot-me-instead-myanmar-nuns-plea-to-spare-protesters

Myanmar 2021

 

Some of you may know I worked for 1 year in Myanmar, trying to help make a traditional insurer more data-driven. I am now not in Myanmar anymore, however I keep an eye on the happenings in this amazing country.

To me, Myanmar is a country with enormous potential; as a foreigner, you only have to open your eyes and leave your preconceptions at the door.

Attitude

One of the amazing things about Myanmar is the attitude of the people. There is no hiding that the country deals with some issues in terms of development. What surprised me most when I went to the office is a lack of people in what would be called mid-career age in the office. There is a bunch of young people (more on them later) and a bunch of more seasoned people (50s and above). But do not underestimate Myanmar’s ‘older’ generation.

A simple example would explain what I mean. I thought it would be good, as part of spreading the word about the use of data, to have basic statistics and analysis classes for my colleagues. This was open to all staff. Again I have a bunch of young eager students and a bunch of older ones.

One of my students was in his 60s, and regularly attended. He told me “I enjoy your classes. I always want to learn, and these classes open my mind and I learn new things”.

Many of us working in data have to deal with people who refuse to change their ways, and this is one of the major obstacle to organisations on their journey to becoming data driven. But to hear someone tell you this is very encouraging. And this is not an isolated case.

 

Potential

When I arrived, after taking stock of things, I realised processes were very manual. I enquired with the CIO (an expat) and he said that it was impossible to get talent, and that he had to search high and low for qualified people, hence, despite being there for quite a while, the best he could do, with the resources is maintain the systems. The skills he was talking about was basic database skills, SQL.

I found that to be totally wrong.

I found quite a good team of talents in Myanmar (one from the CIO’s office who wanted a change). There are very talented people in the latest technologies in Myanmar, from local universities. We developed and built forms that could be used to send applications instantly to the back-office for processing and the back-office underwriters were willing and able to use the new methods. We revamped the auto claims systems to more than half the time to pay, and this involved a lot of adjustments within the claims team, not only among new and young staff, but also among the more experienced staff. We even trialed telematics for insurance (I hope that was going well after I left).

I will state things simply:

• From my personal experience, Myanmar has very talented young people who are very eager to learn and grow.
• So in technical terms, in the world of data, Myanmar has the skills.
• Myanmar also has people with great attitude, eager to learn, and able to put theory into reality.

My hope

My basic hope for Myanmar is that the situation is resolved without bloodshed, like what most people would agree.

But equally importantly would be for the potential that Myanmar has to be realised.

The young people in Myanmar today should be provided a good framework where they can engage in the intellectual pursuits, grow and learn, and be allowed to contribute back to their country in terms of leap-frogging into the 21^st century.

I have seen first-hand the passion these young people have to grow and contribute back to the country, what I hope is that they are allowed to do so.

Furthermore, this should happen soon, so the more experienced people in Myanmar can work side by side with the young.

It would be horrible if Myanmar were to miss another generation.

I have always been against country-wide economic sanctions because it is the ‘normal’ people who suffer and any change is driven from that suffering pushing people to the brink so they have no choice to enforce change. To me, there is too much suffering in this approach.

I believe that ASEAN should take the lead in interfacing with the power in Myanmar. Many people in the region recognise the alignment of the military who now hold power in Myanmar and economic power. Instead of “managing” the economic conditions of the whole country, the economic interests of the people in power is what should be understood and their incentives which are likely have driven them to take power in the way they have be managed. And this is one place where “big data”/”Data science” can help.

 

P.S. Since I started this blog, 3 new events occurred

1 Someone at the protests was wounded by live ammunition. I hope the least other countries can do is put pressure on the powers that be in Myanmar not to use excessive force against the civilian population, their own people.

2 I have been reading that some people are divesting from Myanmar, for example a personality from Razer (1). I believe that, as with economic sanctions, people should be careful. If the partner in Myanmar is from the Military or is military linked, then yes, this can help the military change their minds, and put a higher cost to their recent actions. But then, it may be worth asking why it took recent events to cause divestment, after all 30 years ago Myanmar was under military control. But if the partner is not associated with the military, then it may cause more harm – make some people lose their jobs- than good.

3 someone has made a good start to understanding pressure points that may work without much damage to the people of Myanmar (2). It is up to us as individuals to act. Using big data at a granular level can uncover so much more. If there is a will…

1.  https://mothership.sg/2021/02/razer-co-founder-myanmar-military/amp/
2.  https://coconuts.co/singapore/news/burmese-expat-goes-to-police-over-singapore-companies-ties-to-myanmar-military/

If it looks too good to be true, it probably is

Be wary of analysis where all the indicators seem to point in the same direction: “If it looks too good to be true, it probably is”.

Again

306 – 232

Is the number everyone is focused on.

Yes Biden/Harris seems to have a clear mandate, with almost 5 million more votes than Trump/Pence.

The numbers who voted in this election are unprecedented – Trump/Pence lost with the highest number of votes for any incumbent presidential ticket.

The efforts of the democrats to push people, especially minorities and disenfranchised people to vote paid off.

Well…

Not in the way you may think. According to CNN exit polls (1):

Trump/Pence did better in 2020 among all non-white-races (vs 2016), 

and 

Biden/Harris (2020) worse among all non-white races compared with Clinton/Kaine (2016).

Some of you would have noticed that the changes do not add up to zero (loss of democrats is smaller than gains to Trump/Pence). This is because people are more candid about their choices this round:

Fewer people voted for a third party or refused to reveal their preference.

So, how did Biden/Harris apparently win more votes then?

The Democrat campaign was focused on re-capturing the people who voted for Obama/Biden in 2012 and who switched to Trump/Pence in 2016, especially in the rust-belt (2).

And this strategy seems to have delivered the white house (3)(4).

Data can show much more if you have an open mind and look deeper.

 

 

1 https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

2 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-biden-insight/bidens-winning-strategy-flip-rust-belt-trump-states-and-hold-on-tight-idUSKBN27N0OC

3 https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/midwest-rust-belt-georgia-will-decide-presidential-election.html

4 https://dyn.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2020/president/

 

Data Literacy is more important than ever

Data has been sitting in servers and databases for the last 50 years.

Artificial Intelligence has been around for at least that long too.

But data, on its own, does not inform you, does not help you make better decisions, it needs to be interpreted, modelled…

A simple example:

290 -214

This is the current number of votes from the electoral college that Biden-Harris and Trump-Pence are projected to receive. Since a minimum of 270 votes are the minimum to be declared the winner, Mr Biden finds himself called president-elect.

But there is more to this:

The fact remains that close to 8 million people more voted from Trump-Pence in 2020 (as of now) compared to 2016. The Trump-Pence ticket has grown in votes.

Which number you choose to focus on depends on the story you want to tell. A truer picture should use both sets of numbers.

Analytics is not about the data; interpreting, modelling the data, being aware of the weaknesses of modelling techniques is critical.

Data literacy is more important than ever.