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Monday 30 September 2024

Analytics failure costs Singapore ~$100m

In my previous blog (1), I showed the direction Singapore has chosen to take regarding the new world of AI. Singapore chose to weaken traditional labour structures and support personal responsibility instead. I mentioned that in order for these 2 structures to be comparable, there needs to be transparency and accountability across the line, so individuals can come close to replicating informational resources the old structure (Unions) had.

I had left out the obvious fact that, if you want to adopt AI, you need to know what you are doing, else you will get hurt. Well, it only took a week for this obvious fact to slap me in the face.

One of the crown jewels of Singapore, the Mass Rapid Transit train system has had a major failure, costing Singapore around $100m (2) and the cost is still going up as the days go. And I place this failure firmly in the realm of an analytics failure.

What happened?

It is very simple.

A train broke down at 0930 on Wednesday.
In order to free the tracks, the affected train was dragged towards an appropriate area.
However, the break down had caused a part of the train be dislodged and fall onto the tracks.
During the dragging of the train, this caused damage to the tracks for at least 1.6km (3)

Why do I say it is analytics failure then?

Before I go there, let me go a little bit back in time, to the '1^st grand MRT failure'

The 1^st grand MRT failure

I am not going to go through minor issues, if you are interested you can refer to (4)(5), but to the 2011 case. Within 3 days 2 incidents occurred.

Many fingers were pointed at the then CEO, MS Saw Phaik Hwa, whose expertise lay making $ having been regional president of DFS (Duty Free Shop) Ventures – the closest she got to managing transport was probably DFS shops at Changi airport. She launched the now ubiquitous shops at MRT stations. Everyone knows she had no engineering degree, but the aim was to monetise the assets of the SMRT.

She was criticized for not prioritizing maintenance. But during the commission of enquiry on the 2011 failures, while she was accused of neglecting maintenance – the cost of maintenance rose by 3% per annum (6) – she argued that she simply approved the figures proposed by the maintenance team.

She posited a few possible reasons for the 2011 failures (that affected only around 200,000 people (8) compared to half a million now) and mentioned unexpected rise in readership.

As it can clearly be seen, Singapore population did indeed increase quite a bit leading to 2011 (9); the growth rates 2006-2011 are higher than 2001-2005. In fact, in 2009, Singapore first crossed 5m population.

My own non-expert but numbers driven opinion is that maintenance budgets may not have taken increased wear and tear due to increased ridership.

Indeed, at that time, the focus, as highlighted by expert witness Professor Lim from NTU was on strength of ‘preventive maintenance’ on the part of SMRT.

Preventive maintenance is what you do with your vehicle, you have a time (yearly, half yearly) or usage (km used) based schedule to maintain it. The basic idea is that, in most cases, most issues occur after a set period (time or usage), hence the idea is to maintain before that threshold and identify and fix issues before they become serious.

As I mentioned before, CEOs are an indication of the direction an organization is likely to take. Ms Saw Phaik Hwa was replaced by Mr Desmond Kuek, a career military man and an engineer (10)

So what has changed since then?

You can get some historical perspective by reading what the former Straits Times transport correspondent wrote (11). He highlights the recent completion of the 10 year renewal programme, and the issues that have cropped up since.

But to me, what is more enlightening is what he said SMRT does/did right, that is “In his post, Tan called for full transparency from the authorities, questioning why the incident occurred despite SMRT’s use of predictive maintenance systems designed to prevent such failures. “We have been told SMRT now practices preventive and predictive maintenance… So, what happened to that fateful train?”“

SMRT has included predictive maintenance among the tools at its disposal.

This is totally in line with Singapore adopting the best techniques, and is now leading the world in GenAI adoption (12).

In fact, the SMRT Chairman, only last year, stressed the need to balance costs and reliability, to avoid “over maintenance” (13). This is exactly where predictive maintenance can help. It is not a replacement for preventive, but an additional tool that should help manage costs better.

A couple of things I’d like to point out before I go further.

The current SMRT Chairman, Mr Seah Moon Ming is an engineer by training and had a career in MINDEF (Ministry of Defence) and ST Engineering among other government related posts.(14)

The current CEO, Mr Ngien Hoon Ping is also an engineer and also comes from an army background and is the third ex Singapore Armed Forces high ranking officer to helm the SMRT (15).

The focus is squarely on efficiency in maintenance.

So how did this incident occur?

What caused the 2^nd grand failure?

To me, it is preventive maintenance.

Yes, analytics is causing Singapore $100m and counting.

Let me explain myself.

I am not saying preventive maintenance is bad.

On the contrary, it is a potential cost and even life saver. It is a very useful tool. As all tools, how is it used matters.

Now, preventive maintenance is not new to SMRT (16); even since the days of Mr Desmond Kuek, preventive maintenance has been put in place and AI used to make more sense of the data generated.

To be clear, some highlights relevant to the current case:

“allows real-time monitoring while the trains are in operation”
“Sensors installed at City Hall MRT will also scan the entire North-South and East-West lines’ train fleet for defects such as wear and tear to the wheels or axel defects.”
“allow SMRT to tap on multiple streams of data from all of its assets to predict the need for maintenance activities”

The system SMRT installed in 2018 was from HK polytechnic university (17) and as first in the world (as usual for Singapore) (18) and to be clear the capabilities are “Apart from installing an optical fibre sensing network in tracks to monitor the trains, sensors are also installed in in-service trains to monitor the tracks on which the trains run.”

The system SMRT has ‘listens’ to the train, and to the tracks, and feeds live updates of data for processing: real time, trains and tracks.

The tools therefore do not seem to be a problem.

The 1^st thing that SMRT publicized once the incident occurred, even before any possible cause was investigated, is that the train that broke down was 35 years old.

To me, on the contrary, this means that SMRT has enormous amount of data on this type of train and the preventive maintenance models on this 35 year old train should be top notch: more accurate and reliable data means more accurate and reliable models, especially in slowly changing systems.

I am not saying the models failed. There is much much more to implementing, using and maintaining any model with predictive capabilities than simply just signing a document and taking delivery of a system.

Think 3Ps People, Product, Processes

Product

The collaboration between SMRT and HKPoly is still going strong (Dr Tan Kee Cheong (18) is still with SMRT and was even adjunct at Hong Kong Poly (19)). Hong Kong Poly is also at the cutting edge of research and application on railways (20)). Therefore, there is no reason to believe that the product, that is the predictive maintenance system from HK Poly has any major issues.

Rather, I think the issue has all to do with people and process.

Let me start with process

Process

Let’s recap what happened (21)

Train developed fault
Train was being moved to the depot
A component, axle box dropped onto the tracks
The boogie frame dropped and caused wheels to shift
This damaged rails and tracks for at least 1.6km as the damaged train was moved.

Axle box:

Predictive maintenance watches the health of axle boxes ““Sensors installed at City Hall MRT will also scan the entire North-South and East-West lines’ train fleet for defects such as wear and tear to the wheels or axel defects.””

The predictive maintenance system should have flagged potential issues with the axle and prevent axle to break.

1.6km of damage (at least)

A piece of equipment was dragged on tracks for at least 1.6km, and there was no alert from any sensor that the noise, or the vibrations coming from the track were not normal? I am pretty sure the sensors picked the issue. But why was the damage allowed to continue so long?

The slew of sensors along the track should have detected the damage as it was occurring and minimized the impact.

So what happened?

I think the issue is with the volume of data SMRT deals with, ““allow SMRT to tap on multiple streams of data from all of its assets to predict the need for maintenance activities””. The process for dealing with the volume of data is likely flawed.

And this leads me to people.

People:

An analytical system is not a fire and forget kind of thing. Its performance has to be measured, the system within which it operated has to be evaluated, and the analytical models adjusted accordingly.

This takes some organizational commitment and some skill on the part of the analytical team. This is where most models, even if properly implemented, degrade and may fail past the short run.

Let me explain a little bit.

To predict whether a piece of material will fail, simple survival analysis type models are sufficient for a single component, all the way to digital twins to account for interactions within. Every time you maintain the piece of equipment, you take data on the state of the equipment, and if possible, the waste whether exhaust, or oil/lubricant, and use the chemical analysis as input. There even are systems that do preventive maintenance purely based on the sound of equipment (22).

For those of you who have been to Ikea, remember the chair testing machine? (23).

Preventive maintenance counts when the chair usually breaks and tells you it is good for say 80% (depending on the risk) of that number, predictive maintenance looks at the wear and tear on the flexible component and advises when it is deteriorating. This is the lab (showroom) world.

Now when the piece of equipment interacts with a changing world, then the external components that affect the equipment also need to be included.

For example, let’s say this chair is at my home. If I suddenly put a large amount of weight, then my predictions regarding my chair go out of the window, the environment the chair existed in has changed, and I need to adjust my calculations accordingly.

A slightly more complex system has to be built.

And someone needs to know when the parameters within the model have to be adjusted.

This is what people are for, to keep the predictions usable.

Predictive maintenance suffers from the fact that it is hard to model to start with, given failures are (hopefully) rare; modeling rare occurrences has its own challenges. Now add to the fact that ideally you need to model external components. People are even more crucial; imagine what may affect the model, and try improving the model by testing if these features make the models perform better.

It is a continuous process.

A model is meant to represent something. As things or the environment change, so must the model. Luckily, for analytics, it is part of the process that people should follow to test the changes in the model and make sure they are successfully captured and the model improved.

Summary:

In sum, the case of the SMRT incident illustrates the importance of people continually thinking and improving systems and the processes around them.

It’s the people, not the technology.

While Singapore is leading GenAI adoption, and is putting a structure in place to go along the chosen trajectory it is crucial basic steps are not missed else the structure may crumble.

The case of SMRT has shown that even in areas where Singapore is world class (24), there still are gaps in the ability to use analytics and keep using it in the medium to long run. And in my view, this case stems from issues with people and processes.

Use of data via the application of analytical models whether pure statistical models, ML, AI… needs to be thought through and people with the right expertise and creativity are needed to ensure these models keep performing as can be expected.

Just having the IT skills to deploy a model, especially out of the box, or to follow documents to launch them is not sufficient.

“Use your blain!”

Let this be a $100m lesson.

Tuesday 24 September 2024

Changes in the landscape of the insurance industry in Singapore are a symptom of societal changes you should be ready for.

Allianz, a Swiss insurer, is buying 51% of NTUC Income, a Singapore insurer. So far ‘so good’. But the reason why this has created lots of debate is that NTUC Income was born as a co-operative, and still has the aim “to make insurance accessible, affordable and sustainable for all”. Value, not profit, is maximised for customers.”(1) I think most people would agree that this is not really what Allianz is known for, hence the fear that the social side of the insurer; and probably even more, a decline of the role of trade unions in Singapore. And this is a big topic (2), but more on that later.

When I was younger, I was not in favour of unions, but as I started work, I realized that exploitation is real and there are enough informational inequalities that maintain the balance of power against workers. So, I am not in favour of unions losing power, I believe they exist for a reason and have proven their usefulness over time. If you think your ‘40hr’ week, paid holidays, sick leave were unilaterally given by kind employers looking after the welfare of their workers, think again.

In fact, in the USA, president Biden, on labour day, said: “Wall Street didn’t build America… the middle class built America… and Unions built the middle class”(3) Even in arguably the home of capitalism, unions are valued. So why is Singapore apparently selling off a crown jewel of the union movement?

To me, the debate surrounding NTUC Income is not restricted to just insurance, but is seen as symptomatic of the change in the role of the unions in Singapore.

This is especially relevant to Singapore, given the role that the Union movement has played in the transformation of Singapore from third to first world in the span of a few decades.

Unions at the core of the Singapore success story

When the father of Singapore wanted to decide the trajectory he would place Singapore on, he turned to Dutch economist Albert Winsemius. The latter’s concise and precise advice was two-fold (4):

“Number one is: get rid of the Communists; how you get rid of them does not interest me as an economist, but get them out of the government, get them out of the unions, get them off the streets. How you do it, is your job”

“Number two is: let [the statue of Stamford] Raffles stand where he stands today; say publicly that you accept the heavy ties with the West because you will very much need them in your economic programme.”

NTUC (National Trades Union Congress) was created in 1961 to stem the threat of communism and give workers a disciplined voice in the development of Singapore together with employers and the government “the promotion of good industrial relations for the benefit of workers, employers and the economy.”(1).

As part of this mission, NTUC started creating co-operatives: NTUC Income (INsurance COperative COMmonwealth Enterprise Ltd) with the declared aim to ““to make insurance accessible, affordable and sustainable for all”. Value, not profit, is maximised for customers.”(1). To make transport more accessible and protect the rights of drivers, NTUC Comfort (CO-operative coMmonwealth FOR Transport Ltd) and NTUC Welcome now Fairprice to “FairPrice has kept the cost of living affordable for ordinary workers by offering basic necessities at lower, stable prices.”

For the sake of brevity, I will focus on the changes that have been happening in NTUC Income and NTUC Fairprice to show how the labour market is planned to change going forward.

NTUC is slowly but surely changing

NTUC Fairprice is changing

My mother-in-law often used to laugh that we shopped at NTUC Fairprice, stating things are often more expensive in Fairprice (that was before the new and more budget friendly supermarkets such as ShengSiong). And after getting nagged enough, we found out she was right. Instead of assuming that NTUC Fairprice would be worker friendly and price friendly, we should have checked. So, to put it simple, NTUC Fairprice is probably not (no longer?) the more budget friendly supermarket in Singapore.

A second point I would make to show how NTUC Fairprice has shifted in its approach is the self-service. I have mentioned before that I am not for business shifting costs to consumers – such as supermarkets asking customers to scan and bag their purchases themselves rather than paying professional people to help customers. However, NTUC’s self-serve has a unique approach among supermarkets in Singapore. I call it the ‘no-trust’ approach.

When you use the self-serve counter at NTUC, every item you take in your basket and every item you bag is weighed. Any discrepancy in weight is flagged and a human has to verify you are not cheating and has to override the system, allowing you to continue. Even shifting your own bag as you arrange the items you bought is likely to alarm the system. Other supermarkets do not use weight as a critical parameter. Hence my description of the system as a ‘no-trust’ system.

Singapore is a country where some people leave their wallets in public on tables to reserve their slot, but where it seems NTUC Fairprice believes supermarket items will be stolen, or maybe that’s what they think of their customers specifically.

Thirdly, apart from pricing and trust, I would like to highlight the leadership changes in NTUC Fairprice. Since April 2022, NTUC has hired a CEO who previously used to be Pizza Hut International President (5). To me this suggests a more ‘professional’ ‘profit-based’ approach, quite a far cry from the ‘basic necessities as lower stable prices’ concept. It would seem the mantle has been taken over by ShengSiong instead.(6)

You may find it odd that I highlight the change in leadership, but as you will see next, leadership changes in Singapore, or at least government influenced NTUC are not random.

NTUC Income’s change is even more obvious

As mentioned earlier, NTUC Income was created to make insurance accessible, affordable and sustainable to all in Singapore. To follow up on the idea of leadership as a guide to direction, let us look at the leadership of NTUC Income. The longest serving CEO is Mr Tan Kin Lian, from 1977 to 2007.He started as an insurance clerk, becoming an actuary, and joined NTUC Income in 1970 (6). If you look into his background (7), “throughout his 30-year term as CEO, Tan flew in economy class, even on long haul flights. This management style clashed with some of NTUC Income's board members, who preferred the company to be run on a more commercial or professional basis, and even advocated it to be privatised. The board asked Tan to step down after completing his 30-year term at the helm.“(8), you can understand he is very attached to the principles that NTUC Income embodied right from the start.

He was replaced by Mr Tan Suee Chieh, who stayed in post until 2013 when he moved to NTUC Enterprise.(9) He had run Prudential before and was also an actuary as was Mr Tan Kin Lian. He had served on the board of NTUC income since 2003 (10), the same board that had clashed with Mr Tan Kin Lian. His appointment facilitated the move of NTUC income towards more professional agents for example.

He was replaced by Mr Ken Ng, who was previously chief actuary of NTUC Income (11), who then also moved to NTUC Enterprise to make way for the current CEO, Mr Andrew Yeo who previously ran a business line, not the actuary function (12).

Mr Tan Suee Chieh wrote an open letter to the MAS (13) where he highlighted his own role in major changes that took place in NTUC Income. From 2015 to 2020, NTUC Enterprise (the group) injected capital into NTUC Income, getting shares at the co-operative’s par value of $10, while diluting the shares of other co-operatives and owners of shares in the co-operative from 70% to 30%, with NTUC Enterprise effectively controlling the fate of NTUC Income. He, himself, assured the other share owners that NTUC Enterprise would hold these shares for ever. “I was the Group CEO of NE at that time and played a significant role in assuring and persuading NTUC Income’s independent directors of NE’s commitment, that NE would not redeem its capital (NE shares would be permanent). The purpose of NE making this commitment was to safeguard the social mission of NTUC Income in the long term.”

The next major change in NTUC Income’s journey was when, under the CEO Mr Andrew Yeo, it was incorporated in 2022, no more a co-operative. According to Mr Tan Suee Chieh, he asked for assurances about the NTUC Enterprise’s (NE) commitment to hold the shares of NTUC Income as he himself promised earlier “I expressed my concerns about the corporatisation of NTUC Income (see my previous letter to MAS of 13 February 2022). I also previously quoted in that letter to MAS of 13 February 2022 from the letter sent to me by NTUC Income on 10 February 2022: “You have raised two further points in your latest letter. First, you mention the reference in our 19 January letter to NE’s majority shareholding in Newco, and ask after the permanence of this… On the first issue, NE has publicly expressed its commitment to Income. It has confirmed that, notwithstanding the corporatisation, it will continue to be the majority shareholder of Newco”

However, fast forward to 2024, NTUC Income plans to sell 51% of its shares to Allianz. You can read more about the controversy, since Allianz is not known for looking after “accessibility, affordability and sustainability” but rather profits.

You can read the reactions of Mr Tan Kin Lian (14)(15) and Mr Tan Suee Chieh (16)(17)(18), previous actuaries and NTUC Income CEOs to Allianz being asked to buy a majority stake in NTUC Income.

Whether you like the fact that Allianz will take over NTUC Income or not, you should be able to understand that this wasn’t a move done in haste. CEOs have been removed, moved to group (NTUC Enterprise level), business focused CEO appointed, corporatization, and now sale.

One thing you can never accuse Singapore of is not planning 😊

My point is that NTUC as a co-operative, with aims of a Union co-operative is losing its sheen, and a group that focuses on profits for shareholders rather than social goals is an outcome you could reasonably expect.

So, what does this mean?

Before I go there, let me highlight 2 more changes happening in Singapore in 2024.

30,000 subsidised courses

Firstly, 30,000 new courses have been added to the list of approved government subsidized courses (19), yes you read correctly, 30,000 subsidised courses are available (or will soon be) to Singaporeans to learn new things, or deepen their knowledge in their areas of interest. And yes, there are some about analytics, of varying quality of course, given the number of courses.

Unemployment benefits

Yes, you again read correctly, announced during the new PM’s national day speech, Singapore is going to provide unemployment benefits (20). This is a very different direction from what most people would have assumed Singapore is taking, given the history.

The founding father of Singapore, Mr Lee Kuan Yew stated “We are mindful of the dangers of high welfare and unemployment benefits, watching the consequences of this compassionate policy on the job seeking habits of the unemployed. Visiting the major cities of the industrial countries, I am struck by this curious phenomena of high unemployment and yet a shortage of waiters, cabdrivers, nurses and garbage collectors. Some jobs are not worth doing, as a result of welfare benefits. Whatever principles may be applicable in highly developed industrial countries, for a resource-poor country like Singapore, hard work and high performance amply rewarded, is the best way to attract capital and technology into the country to generate wealth.”(21)

Mr Lee Kuan Yew PM of Singapore even from before independence, 1959 to 1990, he was followed by Mr Goh Chok Ting from 1990 to 2004, and Mr Lee Hsieng Loong, Mr Lee Kuan Yew’s son from 2004 to 2024, and the new PM who announced the unemployment benefit is Mr Lawrence Wong who took over this year. Another change in leadership; what does this herald?

So, what does it mean???

To me, it is quite simple:

Singapore doesn’t do things randomly
As seen in NTUC Fairprice, NTUC Income, and even the Prime Ministership, changes at the top show major changes in policy direction
The concept of collective bargaining/unions is not as strong in Singapore, as shown by the leaders who run businesses even amidst the Union Enterprise
The new subsidized courses and unemployment benefit point to a new direction by the new PM
The direction is that of personal responsibility.
Forget the iron rice bowl (or even the aluminum one), you will probably be involuntarily unemployed sooner or later, and may be more than once, and the responsibility to get yourself back on track is yours.

Singapore has basically decided that the Union ship has sailed. Going forward, each individual’s career is that individual’s own responsibility. There will be no established collective organization to support ‘workers’. It will be each creature for itself, with the government providing rope ladders for those who wish to climb or change the course of their lives, and small safety nets for those who fall overboard and are stranded.

What does this mean for the middle class then?

“The middle class will be made up of self-reliant people who rely on themselves to forge and stay in the middle class”. To catch you when you fall, the government is instituting some temporary safety nets. But do not over stay your welcome, else you will not be middle class for long.

Which ideology do you favour, for you, for your parents, for your children?

In Sum

I started by saying that I understand the importance of Unions, and I still do. However, I can also see what Singapore seems to be trying to do.

If I restrict myself to my field, Analytics/Data World, I do not disagree with the concept of personal responsibility for one’s own career.

I have argued before that organisations do not really need full time data scientists (22 – wah! That was 6 years ago!) Add to this the fact that Analytics is constantly evolving, knowing where your strengths reside (23) and keeping in touch is necessary. Add to this the advent of GenAI, if your ‘analytics’ job is repetitive, be afraid, be very afraid.

To me, Singapore is actively encouraging organisations to automate, use robots(24)(25)(26), use GenAI as much as possible, with Singapore leading the world (27)

To add to this, pressure on workers residing in Singapore does not come only from technology but also from workers from outside Singapore, with the recent 2024Q2 numbers showing growth in employment driven solely by employment of non-residents: “Resident employment fell by 600 while non-resident employment grew by 12,000, with the latter accounting for all the increase in Q2.” (28) and the latest population numbers 6.04m on 730 odd sq.km (29)

Hence, to me, Singapore has cast the dice, much earlier than the rest of the world, unions are going to be something of the past, and personal responsibility with some help from the government is the way forward.

What do you think of this cast of the dice?

My view

To me, the critical piece is informational asymmetry and interesting statistics used for decision making.

I mentioned information asymmetry earlier as a reason for the importance of trade unions. Whether horizontal (role based) or vertical (industry based), unions are very well informed of the conditions their individual members are in, and by the power of collective bargaining are thus able to pressure organisations to be fairer in rewarding employees. Unions have full time employees, and some of them spend time and effort to collate real data.

Without unions, this would be very hard for individuals. Sure, there is Glassdoor to try and crowd source information, but I believe unions have an edge. Add to this, individual workers would have to develop negotiation skills, not everyone’s boat would float with the tide anymore, to each his/her own. (Plug for analytics and negotiation courses!)

Another concern is data used for decision making. In Singapore, most people eat at hawker centres or coffee shops. However, according to official data, price of food has only risen by 6.1% last year (30), I had my doubts. I am an avid local kopi-o-kosong guzzler, and have seen the price rise by much more than 10%. And I am not alone (31). Furthermore, portions are shrinking (32), therefore, the items in the basket used to calculate the consumer prices are different; is like comparing ikan bilis to garoupa (anchovies to grouper), simply bad maths (and horrible analytics).

Given the direction I believe Singapore has chosen to go, it is crucial for the government to provide clear information to bridge the information gap so workers are not exploited as per the times before unions, and do something about profiteering, may be look into oligopolistic tendencies in the market that allow prices to rise way beyond costs. Kamala Harris has described this as price gouging (33) and it is not only in the USA, my kopi-o-kosong attests to that.

1 https://www.nlb.gov.sg/main/article-detail?cmsuuid=189c5b78-e21f-442d-8f93-c8ee64b1b515

2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIgzqaCqTho

3 https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/sep/03/kamala-harris-joe-biden-campaign-labor-day-pittsburgh

4 https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/PAP-06-2018-002/full/html

5 https://www.ntuc.org.sg/uportal/news/FairPrice-Group-Appoints-New-Group-CEO/

6 https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/SSG%20-%20Sheng%20Siong%20adds%20all%20house%20brand%20products%20on%20Price%20Kaki%20-%201%20July%202022%20-%20Final.ashx?App=Announcement&FileID=722471

7 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/tan-kin-lian-presidential-candidate-ntuc-income-chief-3713406

8 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tan_Kin_Lian

9 https://tansueechieh.com/about/

10 https://www.income.com.sg/media/income/About-Us/Corporate-Information/Reports-Publications/Annual-Report-2006Transition.pdf

11 https://www.icmifasiaoceania.coop/wp/?page_id=2557

12 https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/banking-finance/ntuc-income-names-andrew-yeo-new-ceo

13 https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2024/08/02/open-letter-to-mas-on-sale-of-income-insurance-to-allianz/

14 https://www.facebook.com/kinlian/posts/pfbid024SVP4zaT7RvuSw1bxytiEAEFpvti57sfxqYwixyFLUaBz8Wc989md8iTJLQuQAB5l

15 https://gutzy.asia/2024/07/19/allianzs-acquisition-of-ntuc-income-insurance-founding-ceo-tan-kin-lian-expresses-disappointment/

16 https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sueechiehtan_commentary-whats-behind-the-concern-over-activity-7223453846553948160-DCuV/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

17 https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sueechiehtan_second-open-letter-to-mas-in-response-to-activity-7226138464570814464--S2E/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

18 https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2024/08/05/open-letter-to-mas-on-ntuc-income-sale-urgent-call-for-comprehensive-review/

19 https://tnp.straitstimes.com/news/singapore/skillsfuture-credit-use-can-be-used-30000-new-online-courses

20 https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/19/in-major-policy-shift-singapore-announces-unemployment-support-scheme.html

21 https://www.nas.gov.sg/archivesonline/data/pdfdoc/lky19780225.pdf

22 https://thegatesofbabylon.blogspot.com/2018/05/should-you-hire-data-scientists-on-gigs.html

23 https://thegatesofbabylon.blogspot.com/2019/04/some-pointers-on-how-to-plan-your.html

24 https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/housing/robots-that-paint-and-lay-floor-tiles-are-revolutionising-construction-in-singapore

25 https://www.changiairport.com/corporate/media-centre/changijourneys/the-changi-experience/how-robots-are-revolutionalising-the-guest-experience-at-Jewel.html

26 https://www.straitstimes.com/tech/5g-enabled-robots-to-clean-singapore-s-rivers-patrol-streets-and-build-hyundai-evs

27 https://sbr.com.sg/hr-education/news/singapore-leads-global-genai-business-adoption-customer-trust-trails-behind

28 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/mom-labour-market-employment-jobs-non-resident-4611556

29 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/singapore-population-604-million-non-resident-increase-4627281

30 https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/hawker-food-prices-rose-by-61-in-2023-but-cost-pressure-easing

31 https://www.reddit.com/r/askSingapore/comments/1bwc22j/is_coffeeshop_coffee_prices_insanely_high_right/?rdt=45718

32 https://www.reddit.com/r/singapore/comments/18r6kfp/anecdotally_how_bad_are_you_experiencing/

33 https://abcnews.go.com/Business/harris-unveils-economic-plans-inflation-housing-economists/story?id=112892305

Sunday 28 July 2024

Singapore RI: Blackface mask, delivery personnel uniform in school for racial harmony day?!!

Recently a piece of local news caught my attention, a RI student was reprimanded for what many people would consider “wearing 'blackface'” during racial harmony day.

The evidence

First, let’s start with the picture proudly posted (1):

The face of his friend proudly posing with him has been masked, but you can see the main hero wearing a mask of an African American person hanging loose with his light skinned hands.

Also note the attire.

The Occasion: Racial harmony day

Racial harmony day is when students are encouraged to dress in the attire of a different culture to celebrate the diversity of races and cultures in Singapore.

He chose to dress as a food panda delivery person.

The location/belonging: RI

For those who do not know, RI is one of the most prestigious schools in Singapore. To give context: “How did he get into RI?”(2) was a remark made by am MP when criticizing the speech of an opposition MP, also “he is illiterate”(2). The two MPs alleged to have been involved are today Singapore’s Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Singapore’s Minister of Manpower. So yes, RI is prestigious, some may say elite(ist) school. The two young people in the picture represent the cream of Singapore.

The aftermath or what pisses me off

Mr Aaron Loh, principal of RI:

"The student who was dressed inappropriately had taken the photo as part of current trends around social media memes involving a basketballer… He had no intention to make fun of any group or community."(3)

In an interview where he also confirmed that

“the school had told students they could dress in traditional ethnic attire for its commemoration of Racial Harmony Day”

Some points to bear in mind, from the mouth of the school principal:

It was for Racial Harmony Day
The school allowed students to dress in "traditional ethnic attire"
A student decided that dressing as a food panda delivery person may be “traditional ethnic attire”
That student decided to do a dark faced mask to complete his "traditional ethnic attire"
According to the principal this was in line with current trends
According to the principal again, there was no intention to offend

To me this is normal Singapore racism, and to make things worse, the behaviour of the principal excuses condones this behaviour. The principal probably does not see any racial element here.

He could not be more wrong.

My own experience

2 of my experiences when I had just moved to the hostel in NUS would shine some light on my disgust at the RI principal’s attitude.

1 Non-Chinese friends

A few weeks after I joined the hostel, that was during orientation, one of my friends admitted that I was the 1^st non-Chinese real friend he had made in his life. He came from one of the elite schools and had always had the best education. He was/is a very bright person. He further explained that during his school days, the only non-Chinese he really saw were the people employed by the school as janitors/caretakers for example.

This was decades ago.

I wouldn’t be surprised that the only non light skinned people this boy from RI interacted with were people who delivered food to his house. Hence he associates skin colour and the food delivery uniform.

2 Basketball players

Still in the hostel, when I was a senior, we had a bunch of basket-ball crazy freshmen join my block. They would crowd around the TV in a room and watch NBA games. (I also got into NBA and was a fan of the mail man Karl Malone). Once I overheard a statement that one of the guys (who was until recently C level in NTUC) claimed, he wouldn’t mind being black if he obtained these basket ball skills in exchange.

I had the chance of getting to know these guys earlier, and do not think they are knowingly racist. But this statement made me realise that there are many people who hold racist opinions without realizing it; sub-conciously he thought his less dark skin was better than dark skin and he was willing to exchange this for basket ball skills.

Calling this out was needed to make him realise. Not saying it was part of a social trend to say bein awe to NBA players.

So what I am saying is that more than a decade down the road, the same thing still occurs. But it it worse.

Why is this worse than decades ago?

Singapore has evolved, non-Chinese are at all levels of society. There should not be a reason not to have met non-Chinese people. However, in the elite schools (at least in RI) it seems that it is possible.

Here note that the Raffles name is a brand, and many students are in the Raffles brand all the way to junior college. Also school affiliation (parents having been part of the Raffles family for example) is an advantage for admission. RI is also an independent institution, free to charge for admission, have their own programmes, academic or otherwise (4)

For an institution that supposedly has the cream of Singapore, but still allow students to live in such bubbles is scary.

Far worse is the reaction of the principal of the school.

Mr Loh finds this acceptable. Would he have said the same if say someone had dressed as the Covid19 virus while making “slant-eyed” gesture?

Mr Loh is defending what I see as a double problem within his students (economic and racial discrimination/elitism), and even ascribing it so social media trends. Mr Loh, remember, every time you point at something else, the rest of your fingers are pointing towards you.

To make things more interesting, Mr Loh is himself a product of the Raffles brand; you can find more details about the principals and vice-principals at the RI page (5)

Mr Loh is seated third from the left.

Conclusion:

Racism is something that is around in Singapore (6) and trying to address it is nothing new (7). Even current prime minister waded into the matters by commenting on students in pre-primary who prefer to be with their own race by saying ““human instinct to be comfortable with our own””. Prof Goh retorted that “a lot of that instinct is learnt by young children in their homes and in schools”.

I agree with Prof Goh; racism is taught and influenced; if it is not caught early and addressed, it may lurk in the background and rear its ugly head unexpectedly.

Attitudes like that of the current principal of RI are certainly not helpful, and could even be considered harmful.

Monday 15 July 2024

Do you want to use AI or be used via AI (2/2)

In my previous post (1), I showed how state actors who have been using propaganda for years to influence what we as individuals think/believe are now getting more aggressive, more targeted and more insidious by using AI/ML bots and social media.

It is still my belief that:

Influencing how people behave is nothing new, AI just makes it easier to achieve
AI is being used more and more to influence how people think and therefore behave
AI is neither good nor bad, it is how it is used that matters.
Each one of us has a choice to make, whether to allow the influence or question it

AI is neither good nor bad, neither was fire. It is how it is used that matters, and how we, individually deal with it. For example, it probably is not usual for you to leave flammable stuff next to a gas stove/BBQ, is it? You want to control fire and use it, rather than let is go loose because of error/clumsiness of mind, and cause untold damage.

The battle is for your brain, do you want to lose it?

perchance.org

The most important defense is a sane level of skepticism

People are wired to trust (1). When people’s social circles were small, and tight, you knew the people you interacted well, and their personal characteristics. Add to this mutual benefit (after all you are in a tight knit group), it made sense to trust information that someone in the group relayed to you.

However, the world has evolved from small villages, to global village, add to this the evolution of the press from reporting to giving opinions, and the advent of social media where pretty much anybody can say anything, and you can see that it makes sense to be a little bot skeptical of information you get.

It is ok to be skeptical, but just parking information somewhere is not a good idea.

It may be believed since it has stayed in the parking lot for that long or with similar stories
You may be suspending action while you are evaluating things (analysis paralysis)

Aside: how processing information has changed over time

This is an aside that is slightly more important than a footnote. One of the interesting things that has changed is HOW people are convinced. In the past, people used to postulate “a theory”, then provide ‘facts’ that support the theory, and therefore the people targeted believe the theory. Nowadays, the focus is in repetition rather than a theory. “There is a low bar to assent and repetition: the conspiracy charge is ‘true enough.’ Subscribers to conspiracy without the theory do not to have to believe the particulars of the charge. Indeed, there are rarely any particulars – just assertion and innuendo.”(2)

Nowadays repetition in social media is designed to burn a factoid into your brain, rather than bring you to a conclusion by starting with a theory. The end result is that a belief or a bias is formed, and given we are lazy, we rarely review the reasons for beliefs we may have. So, repetition, especially at the scale of social media, works.

Back to the main topic.

Simple Steps to protect yourself: 1 trusted sources

I started by using US elections of 2016 as an example (3), and this was deliberate. These two posts were motivated by an article I read recently. (4). The Stanford Internet Observatory was one of the first to pull the alarm on Russian interference in the US 2016 Presidential elections. If you have time, it is worth looking into their efforts (5). Basically, they are stuck in lawsuits, so the university has decided the truth was not worth that amount of money.

There are other possible trusted sources that evaluate factoids you may have heard, fact checking websites; politifact is one of them (6); you can find more (7)

Unfortunately for us outside the USA, many of these are US centric.

For example, how many people in Singapore would have believed, despite all the technological excellence of MAS, the banking sector (including the world’s best digital bank), the rapidity of the police at shutting down crime, SGD3Billion worth of money laundering took place (8). But it is a fact.

Simple Steps to protect yourself: 2 learn logical thinking

Someone once said common sense is less common than you think. I unfortunately agree. We were all given brains and these are our quite well equipped to defend themselves against ideas/concepts that are not correct. And logic is the tool that helps. The most important thing is of course to start by being skeptical, and take the time to think through things logically.

The first thing you should do is strip any statement to its basic components, like deconstruct something made of Lego, break it down to its basic components. You take the argument that has been proposed to you into its basic premises. Then you apply a logic technique to see where that gets you.

Deduction (9)

Deduction is the most reliable way to prove an argument or reject it. The key to deduction is to place the premises of an argument into a certain shape, and if the shape holds, then the argument is valid. For example:

All B are A
C is B
Therefore, C is A

Now let me flesh this as an argument with premised and conclusion:

All humans are mortal
John is human
Therefore, John is mortal

How about this one?

All women have long hair
Jane is a woman
Therefore, Jane has long hair

What do you think of this one? The form is the same as above, but do you agree? You probably wouldn’t. The argument is valid, however, one of the premises is not True.

Not all women have long hair

While the shape of the argument is valid, because one of the premises is not true, therefore the argument itself is not sound; you cannot say with certainty that Jane has long hair because one of the premises is not true (Some women do not have long hair).

And that’s the thing about deduction, it provides as close to certainty as you can get, it is bullet proof.

You can see deduction as:

Take an accepted Theory/Proven Idea
Apply it to a specific case that fits
Generate a conclusion for that specific case

What if you have no accepted theory/proven idea?

Induction (10)

While deduction is bullet proof, induction is less so; it gives you a probabilistic answer.

is really yummy, no tummy issues

Let’s say that, like me, you are a fan of la-zi-ji (spicy chicken).

I ate la-zi-ji 10 times in the last 3 months and each time, I had tummy issues the next day
The spices in La-zi-ji can be potent to cause tummy issues
Therefore, causes tummy issues

There are a few differences compared to deduction.

Here you start with some observations (eat la-zi-ji day 1, tummy issues day 2, 10 times in last 3 months), apply some analysis/theory (la-zi-ji spices may cause tummy issues) and derive a probabilistic conclusion.

What do you think of this induction, how strong is it?

To me it is not that strong. It can be improved by gathering more data:

Eat from different stalls to make sure it is not stall specific
How did your friends who also at la-zi-ji react? Or is it just you?
Was It really la-zi-ji, what else did you eat, maybe you also ordered cray fish and you have a mild allergy

In induction, you start from observations, samples and try to build a theory. How strong the theory depends on the size and quality of your observations/samples.

The other important thing here is, if the 11^th time you at la-zi-ji, your tummy is ok the next day, then you can revise your theory to la-zi-ji may cause tummy issues, you lower the probability.

Abduction (11)(12)

No, I am not referring to kidnapping. Abductive reasoning is another logical tool you should equip yourself with.

Interestingly, this is the type of reasoning AI finds less easy.

Abduction starts with an observation, then you think of the various things that could explain the hypothesis, and postulate the one you find most likely.

An example will clarify things:

You find crumbs on the kitchen table and unwashed plate and glass in the sink
You think it is most likely that your flat mate had a midnight snack and was too lazy to clean up.

There are may other explanations that could fit:

You sleepwalk and had a midnight snack while asleep last night
A burglar came in and decided to have a midnight snack
Your flat mate is playing a practical joke on you

You simply picked the one you thought most likely, based on your experience.

It is important to be able to recognize which of these paths of logical reasoning you have taken, then you can understand how much certainty you can associate with your beliefs based on which process you used to reach them.

It may be confusing at first, but with some practice you will get it.

Furthermore, there is a clear progression from Abduction to Induction to Deduction

This is aligned with how discovery takes place and models are created and built all the way to implementation.

The extra problem in the fight for the real estate of your brain is that some people/bots are really good at masking bad arguments, tricking you in believing they are correct.

Simple Steps to Protect yourself 3: Identify Fallacies

I always say I am lazy; I actually think humans are lazy and it takes conscious effort sometimes not to be lazy. Fallacies are shortcuts that people may choose to take advantage of your laziness and implant some stuff surreptitiously into your brain.

There are many fallacies, I will only illustrate a couple of the most commonly used:

Appeal to Authority / Ad Verecundiam

This simply uses a famous person as authority figure to justify the argument. There are 2 flavours: False Authority

CR7 uses K water
CR7 is world famous
Therefore, K Water must be a great soft drink.

Nobody said CR7 was an authority in water, this is the world of influencers…

Anonymous authority

Scientists claim 5G is harmful
Scientists know what they are talking about
Hence 5G is harmful

Who is the scientist, where are the scientific papers?

Bandwagon/Ad Populum

People who have known me well are likely to have heard me respond angrily to Ad Populum arguments; they are basically: do this because everyone does so… No need to think, just follow the bandwagon.

Everyone buys extended warranties
Extended warranties are worth it
Therefore, I should buy one on my spice grinder

Strawman

A strawman argument is used when someone’s argument is distorted by an opponent so that when the distorted argument is refuted by the opponent, they claim the original argument has been refuted. It can take many forms: over simplifying what someone said, taking it out of context… It is used very very often by politicians

Example:

I am against the mandatory sentence for drug mules
He is for allowing entry of drugs into the country

False Dichotomy

False dichotomy truly plays on laziness. It aims to wrongly simplify an argument into 2 possible solutions, one of which is not favourable so you pick the other, ignoring all other solutions.

Example:

Either you eat an apple a day, or you visit the doctor.
You choose.

Ad Hominem

Ad Hominem occurs when the person is attacked rather than the argument that the person is making.

Example:

I don’t think this person can be trusted because he made a mistake last time

This has no impact on the argument the person presents, but the ad hominem attack to meant to damage the credibility of the argument by damaging that of the person making it.

There are many more fallacies, I have just highlighted a few I am sure that, if you think about it, you have seen in action before. You can find more details; Wikipedia is a good place to start (13).

Conclusion

The best way to minimize chances of your brain being taken over by ideas/concepts that are not that correct is to learn to identify these ideas/concepts/arguments/snippets of ‘information’ as early as possible. You can rely on public service websites that check for truth, or choose to verify the veracity/soundness/validity of arguments by your own self, or both.

It is equally important to verify your beliefs in light of new data you may come across and update your beliefs/ideas. It is a constant battle, probably worth being engaged in.

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7216242124814524417/
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basics/trust
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337877932_Conspiracism_and_Delegitimation_A_lot_of_people_are_saying_The_new_conspiracism_and_the_assault_on_democracy_Russell_Muirhead_and_Nancy_Rosenblum_Princeton_University_Press_Princeton_2019_978069118883
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/29/closing-the-stanford-internet-observatory-will-edge-the-us-towards-the-end-of-democracy
https://cyber.fsi.stanford.edu/io
https://www.politifact.com/
https://library.csi.cuny.edu/c.php?g=619342&p=4310783
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/courts-crime/3b-money-laundering-case-su-jianfeng-sentenced-to-17-months-last-of-10-to-be-sent-to-jail
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deductive_reasoning
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inductive_reasoning
I am using the classical definition of abduction here, as first explained by Pierce https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/abduction/peirce.html
For a modern definition, you can consult https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/abduction/ ; however, I think the classical definition works best in the process of formulating ideas and also as part of the process of Analytics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies