If it looks too good to be true, it probably is

Be wary of analysis where all the indicators seem to point in the same direction: “If it looks too good to be true, it probably is”.

Again

306 – 232

Is the number everyone is focused on.

Yes Biden/Harris seems to have a clear mandate, with almost 5 million more votes than Trump/Pence.

The numbers who voted in this election are unprecedented – Trump/Pence lost with the highest number of votes for any incumbent presidential ticket.

The efforts of the democrats to push people, especially minorities and disenfranchised people to vote paid off.

Well…

Not in the way you may think. According to CNN exit polls (1):

Trump/Pence did better in 2020 among all non-white-races (vs 2016), 

and 

Biden/Harris (2020) worse among all non-white races compared with Clinton/Kaine (2016).

Some of you would have noticed that the changes do not add up to zero (loss of democrats is smaller than gains to Trump/Pence). This is because people are more candid about their choices this round:

Fewer people voted for a third party or refused to reveal their preference.

So, how did Biden/Harris apparently win more votes then?

The Democrat campaign was focused on re-capturing the people who voted for Obama/Biden in 2012 and who switched to Trump/Pence in 2016, especially in the rust-belt (2).

And this strategy seems to have delivered the white house (3)(4).

Data can show much more if you have an open mind and look deeper.

 

 

1 https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

2 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-biden-insight/bidens-winning-strategy-flip-rust-belt-trump-states-and-hold-on-tight-idUSKBN27N0OC

3 https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/midwest-rust-belt-georgia-will-decide-presidential-election.html

4 https://dyn.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2020/president/