Sunday, 19 November 2023

You are overpaying for your vehicle insurance. It doesn't have to be this way.

I am sure you have been making this complaint over the years, but didn’t have much choice since prices are around the same and policies are designed to be sticky or not so advantageous to get out of (that’s for another day).


Singapore General Insurance Association says so too!

But now, ladies and gentlemen, we have the ultimate confirmation. This comes from the GIA the association that groups General Insurers in Singapore “About two in 10 motor insurance claims in Singapore are fraudulent, often involving exaggerated injuries and inflated vehicle damage”(1)

 

And the president of Budget Direct

The president of Budget Direct, who usually prides itself in competitive rates even admitted: “In the end, all motorists are victims of motor insurance fraud as we all end up paying higher premiums as a result

This is the key you see, the claims paid out in fraudulent cases simply get translated into increased premiums for ALL vehicle insurance customers. Irrespective of whether you commit fraud, are a scam victim, or are accident/claim-free, you are paying for the fraudsters’ bread butter and cake, and the insurers maintain their healthy margins and profits


The Insurers have no incentive to act on fraud

The thing is the GIA is saying, it is up to you, the customer to stop the fraud. And that I find laughable. Let’s see what are the main causes of fraud as per GIA …

  1. Beware of Phoney Helpers: After an accident, individuals may offer "help" and pressure victims to follow their directions, often leading them to unauthorized repair shops or overpriced towing services.
  2. Staged Accidents: Scammers stage accidents, causing victims to collide with their vehicles and then falsely accuse victims of causing the collision. They often fake injuries and make substantial claims for damage and injuries.
  3. Phoney Witnesses: Suspect convenient witnesses who support the other driver's account, often suggesting a staged accident.

1 Unauthorised repair shops:

Most vehicle owners are aware of the workshops that their insurer accepts, whether by own bad experience, by hearing from friends and family, or from the insurer. Plus, most of the time, unauthorized repair shops costs are not paid by the insurer, if they are, it is a bit rich on the part of insurers to honour the claim while complaining about it.

Plus it is not rocket science to detect highly inflated claims based on pictures and description that accompany the claims. I know because I worked in an insurance company in a much less developed country than Singapore, and I know for fact that they have the data needed to deal with this, the question is financials and will.

 

2 Staged Accident

And how is that the fault of the insured? The insured is getting scammed at the same time as the insurer, unless GIA is claiming that the insured is somehow going along with the scammers… more on this later

 

3 Phoney Witnesses

Again, how will someone who has just been in an accident be able to detect whether witnesses are phoney or not?

 

Unless Singapore is a nation of scammers (not scammed/scam victims (2)), it just doesn’t make sense to think that individual people involved in accidents are part of the scam. So should victims pay the price twice (once being scammed and second via higher premium, and probably loss of NCB)?.

 

So my arguments that follow assume that Singapore is not a nation of scammers (unlike (3)). Afterall Singapore is only beaten by Finland, New Zealand, and Denmark in terms of corruption perception. (4)

 

The fact that GIA mentions Staged Accidents, Phoney Witnesses seems to indicate syndicates are at play, or at best a group of people who are in the business of scamming accident vistims. In fact, it is likely that staged accidents and phoney witnesses occur together, rather than separately.

 

You can have a staged accident without phoney witnesses, but very unlikely to have phoney witnesses to a real accident.

So chances are, there are syndicates/gangs/groups of scammers at work. It is ridiculous for GIA to expect an individual consumer to be able to detect them, don’t you think so?

 

So what can be done?

The answer, in most of my blogs, is Analytics!

 

Inflated Claims

I briefly mentioned the solution to GIA issue 1, inflated claims. Analytical models can be built to detect inflated claims. The beauty of this is that it can be even employed to detect which workshops are cheating. 

But, from experience, there is little will power in senior management to do something that will rock the boat. It is important for analytics people to learn that not everything that can be done will be done, other factors come into play, obviously whether it is financially viable (in this case I am quite sure it pays for itself quite quickly, a couple of months of work to build, another month to finetune, and the low running costs for a basic solution), or politically (is it worth opening pandora’s box at your preferred workshops?). 

In sum, technically easy to solve and pays for itself, management wise depends on management.

It's even worse at the GIA level where, as people in SG know, some workshops are on the panel for multiple insurers.

 

Staged Accidents and Phoney Witnesses

Accidents, by their nature, are (most of the time) unexpected, hence being able to, by simply looking say at road and traffic conditions, location, it is not that straight forward estimate the probability of an accident and highlight the stranger ones; one of the reasons being that humans play a large role and it is not so easy to get data on all actors involved, not only all drivers involved and their data, but also drivers in the immediate vicinity.(5)

 

The easy way to detect staged accidents and phoney witnesses is to focus on the people, not the vehicles. The key assumption is that these are the work of groups of people. Hence they are likely to play different roles at different times. Let me put it this way, how likely is it that someone is a claimant, a witness of an accident, and at fault for a vehicular accident all within say a year?

 

The idea is that, chances are, a member of the group is likely to play different roles over time, sometimes even with different insurers to make the chances of detection lower. This is something very easy to pick up using social network analytics, especially at the GIA or police level.

 

Conclusion

Saying that 20% of claims are likely to be fraudulent and placing the onus on customers/insured in the case of vehicular insurance in Singapore is a joke.

1 The main causes as stated by GIA are unlikely to be caused by claimants

2 The GIA itself (or to a lesser degree large insurers) are the ones who have the data easily at hand to detect potential fraudulent cases effectively

3 however the insurers (and the GIA) have little incentive to do so since they can simply pass the costs to customers.

 

However, relatively simple analytics can, right now, help alleviate this problem and allow customers to pay lower premiums since the risk of fraud can be mitigated. It is just a question of will from the insurers’ point of view.

 

  1. https://insuranceasia.com/insurance/news/20-singapores-motor-insurance-claims-are-fraudulent-giaj
  2. https://www.straitstimes.com/world/14-trillion-lost-to-scams-globally-s-pore-victims-lost-the-most-on-average-study
  3. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5PI5ZtJTSY
  4. https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021
  5. That is not actually true anymore in Singapore, I will explain in a subsequent blog.



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